Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share.
Identifieur interne : 000175 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000174; suivant : 000176Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share.
Auteurs : Daniel M. Thompson [États-Unis] ; Jennifer A. Wu [États-Unis] ; Jesse Yoder [États-Unis] ; Andrew B. Hall [États-Unis]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 1091-6490 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
In response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many scholars and policy makers are urging the United States to expand voting-by-mail programs to safeguard the electoral process. What are the effects of vote-by-mail? In this paper, we provide a comprehensive design-based analysis of the effect of universal vote-by-mail-a policy under which every voter is mailed a ballot in advance of the election-on electoral outcomes. We collect data from 1996 to 2018 on all three US states that implemented universal vote-by-mail in a staggered fashion across counties, allowing us to use a difference-in-differences design at the county level to estimate causal effects. We find that 1) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to affect either party's share of turnout, 2) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to increase either party's vote share, and 3) universal vote-by-mail modestly increases overall average turnout rates, in line with previous estimates. All three conclusions support the conventional wisdom of election administration experts and contradict many popular claims in the media.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007249117
PubMed: 32518108
PubMed Central: PMC7322007
Affiliations:
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Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoder, Jesse" sort="Yoder, Jesse" uniqKey="Yoder J" first="Jesse" last="Yoder">Jesse Yoder</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hall, Andrew B" sort="Hall, Andrew B" uniqKey="Hall A" first="Andrew B" last="Hall">Andrew B. Hall</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; andrewbhall@stanford.edu.</nlm:affiliation><country wicri:rule="url">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Stanford (Californie)</settlement><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Stanford</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many scholars and policy makers are urging the United States to expand voting-by-mail programs to safeguard the electoral process. What are the effects of vote-by-mail? In this paper, we provide a comprehensive design-based analysis of the effect of universal vote-by-mail-a policy under which every voter is mailed a ballot in advance of the election-on electoral outcomes. We collect data from 1996 to 2018 on all three US states that implemented universal vote-by-mail in a staggered fashion across counties, allowing us to use a difference-in-differences design at the county level to estimate causal effects. We find that 1) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to affect either party's share of turnout, 2) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to increase either party's vote share, and 3) universal vote-by-mail modestly increases overall average turnout rates, in line with previous estimates. All three conclusions support the conventional wisdom of election administration experts and contradict many popular claims in the media.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32518108</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>29</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1091-6490</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>117</Volume><Issue>25</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>23</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>14052-14056</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1073/pnas.2007249117</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>In response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many scholars and policy makers are urging the United States to expand voting-by-mail programs to safeguard the electoral process. What are the effects of vote-by-mail? In this paper, we provide a comprehensive design-based analysis of the effect of universal vote-by-mail-a policy under which every voter is mailed a ballot in advance of the election-on electoral outcomes. We collect data from 1996 to 2018 on all three US states that implemented universal vote-by-mail in a staggered fashion across counties, allowing us to use a difference-in-differences design at the county level to estimate causal effects. We find that 1) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to affect either party's share of turnout, 2) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to increase either party's vote share, and 3) universal vote-by-mail modestly increases overall average turnout rates, in line with previous estimates. All three conclusions support the conventional wisdom of election administration experts and contradict many popular claims in the media.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Thompson</LastName><ForeName>Daniel M</ForeName><Initials>DM</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0890-7577</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Jennifer A</ForeName><Initials>JA</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-8888-1898</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yoder</LastName><ForeName>Jesse</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-0653-230X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hall</LastName><ForeName>Andrew B</ForeName><Initials>AB</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; andrewbhall@stanford.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>09</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>7505876</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0027-8424</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">elections</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">partisanship</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">vote-by-mail</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no competing interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32518108</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">2007249117</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1073/pnas.2007249117</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7322007</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Public Opin Q. 2001 Summer;65(2):178-97</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">11420755</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li></region><settlement><li>Stanford (Californie)</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Stanford</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Thompson, Daniel M" sort="Thompson, Daniel M" uniqKey="Thompson D" first="Daniel M" last="Thompson">Daniel M. Thompson</name></region><name sortKey="Hall, Andrew B" sort="Hall, Andrew B" uniqKey="Hall A" first="Andrew B" last="Hall">Andrew B. Hall</name><name sortKey="Wu, Jennifer A" sort="Wu, Jennifer A" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jennifer A" last="Wu">Jennifer A. Wu</name><name sortKey="Yoder, Jesse" sort="Yoder, Jesse" uniqKey="Yoder J" first="Jesse" last="Yoder">Jesse Yoder</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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